Manual therapy interventions are essential for the management of low back pain. There is an urgent need for assessing early change in manual therapy interventions to establish a connection between changes in session and study outcomes. This study uses a multivariate logistic analysis to determine the effects of early changes (two weeks after therapy) on improvement in low back pain subjects.

For manual therapy interventions, the early change is commonly assessed and has been used to determine treatment appropriateness. However, the current studies explored the relationship of changes and short-/medium-term outcomes between or within-session. The study focuses on finding out the association of pain changes after two weeks of practical manual therapy could predict those participants with chronic low back pain who showed to have continued improvements at 6-month follow-up.

This study was a retrospective observational design. Univariate logistic regression analyses were performed using 33% and a 50% pain change to predict the improvement. Those who experienced a ≥33% reduction in pain by two weeks had 6.98 times higher odds of 50% improvement on the GRoC and 4.74 times higher odds of 50% improvement on the ODI (at six months).

Subjects who reported a ≥50% reduction in pain at 2 weeks had 5.98 times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the GRoC and 3.99 times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the ODI (at 6 months). 

Future studies are required to investigate whether a change in the plan of care is beneficial for patients who are not showing early improvements predictive of a good long-term outcome.